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As we approach the shutdown of our analog broadcast, I try to keep track of how many viewers still use an antenna, as compared with cable or satellite or telephone-company-delivered TV.

I made some interesting observations while looking up these numbers.

The Madison TV market officially covers 11 counties, even though we have viewers beyond those artificial borders.  (Jefferson County belongs to the Milwaukee TV market, but we know that you guys in Fort Atkinson, Lake Mills and Jefferson are watching us.)  Here are some statistics from the A.C. Nielsen company for the period between February and November 2008 that cover our 11-county area:

* The number of cable homes grew in 4 counties and dropped in 7 for a net loss of 4.3%.  Cable is now in less than 50% of homes in the Madison market.

* Satellite/telephone TV (what Nielsen calls "Alternative Delivery Systems") use dropped in 4 counties but gained in 7 for a net gain of 2.2%.

* The number of over-the-air (antenna) homes dropped in 3 counties, were even in 4 and grew in 4 for a net gain of 2.2%.

Amazingly (to me anyway), satellite/telephone TV and antenna TV homes are growing at the same rate.  It appears that half of cable subscribers who cancel their service are switching to satellite or phone-company TV.  The other half are going back to free over-the-air TV.

* Dane County added 8,520 homes using an antenna between February and November.

* Satellite/phone-company TV subscribers outnumber antenna users in every county except Dane.

* Satellite/telco TV beats cable in 8 out of the 11 DMA counties.  Cable wins big in Dane and Rock, and slightly in Sauk County.

Now, the bottom line.  We are at just over 25 days left for analog TV broadcasting.  Cable, satellite and phone-company TV homes should be worry-free.  Looking at antenna users though, Nielsen's estimate of "completely unready homes" for DTV was updated on January 18th, and is now down to 5.7% nationally.  Applying 5.7% to our market numbers gives an estimated 21,588 antenna homes which haven't converted even one analog TV in their home.

I hope Wisconsin procrastinates less than the national average.