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UW poll finds Biden up in three battleground states

New poll shows Biden winning in 3 battleground states
Published: Oct. 26, 2020 at 11:03 AM CDT
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MADISON, Wis. (WMTV) - With just over a week to go before Election Day, former vice president Joe Biden widened his lead over President Donald Trump in Wisconsin and two more battleground states, and crossed a “crucial” threshold, according to a new University of Wisconsin poll.

In all three states, which also includes Michigan and Pennsylvania, more than half of likely voters tell pollsters they plan to vote (or have already voted) for Biden. In the Badger state, his lead over the incumbent has more than doubled from four points to nine.

StateJoe BidenPresident Trump
Wisconsin53%44%
Michigan52%42%
Pennsylvania52%44%

The UW’s Elections Research Center, which conducted the poll, noted Biden’s growing advantage isn’t coming from people changing their minds. The Democratic challenger is, instead, padding his lead among undecided voters and those who had been considering third-party candidates.

In fact, those who had already picked one of the two major-party candidates tended to stick with them, by an overwhelming margin, 99 percent for Biden and 98 percent for President Trump.

It also found, while Biden has done a slightly better job converting people who voted for President Trump in 2016 versus the president winning over Hillary Clinton supporters, the biggest source of newfound support for Biden comes from those who didn’t vote or voted for a third-party last time.

In Wisconsin, over one in 20 voters cast their ballot for someone other than President Trump or Clinton.

If President Trump were pull off another Badger State triumph, it’s likely going to hinge on how many people come out to vote on Election Day itself.

“Biden has a massive lead among those who have already voted,” the ERC’s statement stated flatly. The pollsters quickly add that President Trump is favored among its likely voters who haven’t turned in their ballot, but noted that Election Day lead is not enough to make up for the ground the president has already lost.

Eight hundred respondents were surveyed in each of the three states. The margin of error for the full sample is plus or minus 3.98% in Michigan, 4.20% in Pennsylvania and 3.73% in Wisconsin. For likely voters, the margin of error is 4.20% in Michigan, 4.45% in Pennsylvania and 4.07% in Wisconsin.

Percentages reported in the tables above do not always sum to 100% due to rounding.

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