MU Poll: Evers, Michels all tied up heading into Election Day

The poll offers one final snapshot before many voters head into their polling places on Nov. 8.
Published: Nov. 2, 2022 at 12:51 PM CDT|Updated: Nov. 2, 2022 at 3:47 PM CDT
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MILWAUKEE, Wis. (WMTV) - With just days to go before Election Day and with many Wisconsin voters having already cast their ballots, Marquette University’s Law School released it final poll results of the 2022 midterms. The poll offers one final snapshot before many voters head into their polling places on Nov. 8.

As it tweeted the results of the newest poll, Marquette Law described both races as tossups and that description couldn’t be more accurate in the gubernatorial race, where Evers and Michels are locked in a virtual tie at 48% each among likely voters.

When it comes to the race for Wisconsin’s Senate seat - and possibly control of the U.S. Senate - Mandela Barnes has cut significantly into the deficit he faced last month. Among likely voters, the Lieutenant Governor now trails the two-term Senator by just two points.

Republican U.S. Senate candidate Ron Johnson, right, and Democratic U.S. Senate candidate...
Republican U.S. Senate candidate Ron Johnson, right, and Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Mandela Barnes, left, shake hands during a televised debate Thursday, Oct. 13, 2022, in Milwaukee.(Morry Gash | AP Photo/Morry Gash)

Going into this latest poll, both incumbents held an edge over their opponents. However, with just a single point separating them, Gov. Tony Evers was already locked in a virtual tie with his Republican challenger Tim Michels. In other high-profile race, Sen. Ron Johnson, meanwhile, has flipped a seven-point deficit in August and turned it around into six-point lead in last month’s poll.

None of the four candidates proved particularly popular amongst voters. Three of them - Evers, Johnson, and Barnes -were all underwater in terms of favorability, MU found. The remaining candidate, Michels, did not fare much better, though, splitting those who had an opinion of him.

Tony Evers4446
Tim Michels3939
Ron Johnson4346
Mandela Barnes4044

“Very Concerned’

Top concerns among voters vary widely between parties, MU noted. In fact, there was only one issue that ranked among the top five concerns for each the Democrats, Republicans, and Independents: Inflation.

Among Independents, more of them told pollsters they were very concerned about soaring prices than any other issue. Republicans put inflation right behind whether votes would be tallied correctly, while Democrats put it fifth (coincidentally, also behind an accurate vote count). Abortion policy topped the concerns for Democrats, but did not make the list for either two groups.

DemocratsIndependentRepublicansAll Registered Voters
1.Abortion PolicyInflationAccurate Vote CountInflation
2.Gun ViolencePublic SchoolsInflationCrime
3.Public SchoolsCrimeCrimeGun Violence
4.Accurate Vote CountTaxesIllegal ImmigrationAccurate Vote Count
5.InflationGun ViolenceTaxesAbortion Policy

Despite ranking as the top concern for Republicans and fourth highest for Democrats, more than three-quarters of registered voters are at least somewhat confident that the votes cast next week will be counted accurately. A third of Republicans, though, said they were not too confident or confident at all that the results would be right.

According to the law school, the poll was conducted between Oct. 24 and Nov. 1 and included 802 registered voters and 679 likely ones. It placed the margin of error at +/- 4.6% and +/- 4.8% for likely voters.

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