FIRST ALERT DAY: Messy commutes expected Thursday

System moves in Wednesday night
Some wintry mixing is possible
Snow totals are still uncertain

MADISON, Wis. (WMTV) - The NBC15 Weather team has issued a First Alert Day for Thursday, January 19, as a wintry system will impact southern Wisconsin. Right now, this Alert Day is not due to how much snow we’re expecting to see but rather the timing of the snow for the Thursday morning commute.

Low pressure will be moving out of the Rockies and into the Midwest by Wednesday. This is a tricky system, as the exact path it takes is still variable. Data has been pushing the track farther north over the past few days, which would push the heaviest snow farther north as well.

Model guidance has been shifting the track of the weather-maker farther north. Where exactly it... — Model guidance has been shifting the track of the weather-maker farther north. Where exactly it will land is uncertain.(WMTV)

The uncertainty in the storm track causes our confidence in how much snow we’ll see to be on the lower end. The weather-maker could shift south again, or move even farther north. Despite this, it does look like at least some snow will accumulate in southern Wisconsin on Thursday, with the potential for a bit of wintry mixing as well.

What we do have higher confidence in is the timing of this system. Even if we don’t see large snow totals, it does look like the highest impact time will be Thursday morning. This could make for a messy morning commute and that’s the reason for the First Alert Day.