WATCH LIVE: First Alert Day - Severe Storms Friday

Risk factors have increased for our area
Published: Mar. 30, 2023 at 4:14 PM CDT|Updated: Mar. 30, 2023 at 8:29 PM CDT
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MADISON, Wis. (WMTV) - We continue to track the risk of severe storms for our area on Friday. Since yesterday, the forecast models have increased the threat for parts of our area. We are including all of the potential elements as risks tomorrow; damaging/gusty winds, large hail, locally heavy rain and isolated tornadoes.

Breaking down the scenario, there is a deepening area of low pressure that is moving out of the Rockies and soon into the Plains. This storm will bring the threat of Friday’s severe weather all the way from our area, down into the lower Mississippi River Valley.

What’s Coming Up...

Overnight this evening, we’ll see a round of showers moving through, with a few possible embedded thunderstorms. These will likely only have some heavier downpours with them and then have moved through before sunrise.

Tomorrow afternoon a warm front will move through and then likely stall out across our northern counties. Warmer air, low-level moisture, and wind shear will move in and will help to destabilize the atmosphere south of the warm front. An initial round of storms will move through in the early to mid-afternoon. The second round of storms is expected for the evening and lasts past 9 pm. Both timeframes hold the risk of all the severe weather elements, but it does look like the second round could be the most severe. Several key parameters still need to be locked down, but as tomorrow storms begin to develop and track, we’ll have a more concrete idea of timing and severity.

Looking Ahead...

After this storm moves through, then we will be revisiting some wintry weather. Snow and some very gusty northwesterly will be moving in early Saturday through late Saturday morning. Potential snowfall here in Dane County is expected to be 1-2″ with higher amounts up toward the Dells. High winds helping to blow the snow around could lead to lowered visibility at times.

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