Recent polling results conflict in Wisconsin

By  | 

MADISON, Wis. (WMTV) - Election researches say Wisconsin proved to be an important swing state during the 2016 election.

Researchers say that conflicting election survey results show that Wisconsin is a key battleground state for the 2020 Presidential Election.

With differing survey results recently being released, these experts say those numbers are a direct reflection of how close the 2020 election could be this fall.

"We think of this as a science, there are really good techniques for doing surveys, but it's also imperfect." Director of the Election Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison Professor Barry Burden said. “Every survey is just a sample of people, 500-1,000 people and not the whole population and sometimes by chance you get a group that's a little more republican on average or a little more democratic."

Burden says that explains the difference between the results of the recent Quinnipiac survey compared to YouGov and UW-Madison's poll.

"We ask a series of match-ups with Trump and a series of democrats and in every case, they were essentially tied," Burden said.

For example, the YouGov poll shows Democrats, like Pete Buttigieg edging out Trump in a one-on-one vote, 45-43%.

But the Quinnipiac survey shows President Trump defeating or ahead of the six prominent Democratic presidential candidates. Polls numbers show Trump defeating Buttigieg, 49-41%.

"We should when we have a number of polls see that there's a rough consensus in that margin of error,” Director of the Marquette Law School poll Professor Charles Franklin said. "You should know whether this race is looking pretty close in most of the polls; where the one side has a consistent advantage across the polls or whether it's a mix."

Franklin and Burden say these numbers show that Wisconsin is a key battleground state.

"[We] had a very close 2016 presidential election decided by less than a point and then a governor's race that was so close, so we think the survey is pointing to the fact that Wisconsin remains a tossup state," Burden said.